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The companion research report to Felix Prehn’s video, prepared by Goat Academy Research. Enter your email address and the report opens immediately.

An 11-page research report on the two messages coming out of the same Wall Street buildings. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan arranged a $5bn loan for Volta, a young AI company buying 36,000 Nvidia chips, underwrote the $1.3bn backed by leases and cash, and put the $3.7bn backed by the chips out on a best-efforts basis at around 11%, roughly three percentage points above the average US junk bond. At the same time their research desks publish buy notes on AI shares while Goldman's own traders told institutional clients that investors had continued to de-risk from AI-capex and AI-financing exposure. The report explains the business model behind that split: the arranging fee is earned on day one, the loan is sold on to pension funds, insurers and private credit funds, and the risk ends up in ordinary retirement savings. It walks through the evidence: Oracle's credit default swaps at their most expensive since 2009 and $1bn of its $38bn data-centre construction loan still unsold after six months, Meta moving $27bn of AI spending into a special purpose vehicle, and JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley approaching their internal limits for AI exposure. It closes with three questions for every saver: does your pension hold private credit, how much of your portfolio depends on AI spending continuing at today's pace, and when you read a bank's price target, do you also check what that bank's lenders are charging the same sector. It is an explanation of a mechanism, not a call on the top in AI shares.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.