Get “The Fall of Europe (America Has the Same Cracks)” research report for free

The companion research report to Felix Prehn’s video, prepared by Goat Academy Research. Enter your email address and the report opens immediately.

A 13-page companion briefing to the video of the same title. The riots in France, Volkswagen shutting a German plant for the first time in 89 years and the wealthy leaving are not separate stories; they are one story with four cracks underneath it. Crack one is the pension promise nobody funded: a pay-as-you-go pot that only works with many young workers and few retirees, which is the exact thing that broke, and why France nearly came apart over moving the retirement age from 62 to 64. Crack two is a generation under 35 that did everything right and still cannot afford the home their parents had, which feeds crack one through fewer children. Crack three is the cost of making things, with German energy costing three or four times a rival's and BASF shrinking at home. Crack four is the one that reaches your savings: money and talent walking out, with Britain now a top-five place the wealthy leave, Norway's richest moving to Switzerland after a wealth-tax rise, and Wise, Flutter and CRH moving their main listings to New York. The report then measures each crack against America: the national pension is on the government's own timetable to run short in the mid 2030s, the young are being locked out fast, cheap energy still pulls factories in, and the money is still flowing in rather than out, for now. It closes with a three-step plan (look honestly at where your money sits, own real productive things spread across more than one country, understand the moment before the midterm spending taps open) and a five-question checklist. It is an educational explanation of a mechanism, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.