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A 16-page companion briefing to the video of the same title. America has been at war with Iran for 8 months, oil is up more than 50% and the S&P 500 is still up about 10%, because markets price the end of a war before it ends, as they did in January 1991 when the first day of Desert Storm cut oil by a third in a session and the S&P 500 gained about 20% by June. The report starts with the bill households are already paying: inflation up from 2.4% to 3.7%, a Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time since July 2023, and a 30-year mortgage up from 5.98% to 7.24%, about $333 a month more on a $400,000 loan. It then walks through the 3-week preview in June, when a temporary deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz, Brent fell 28% from $95.73 to $68.53, smaller companies closed at records and energy shares fell, before the deal collapsed on 8 July. It sets out where the talks stand now (a Qatari draft rejected, 10 tankers hit in a week, Brent around $112, nothing signed) and lays the two outcomes side by side: a deal pulls oil back towards Goldman Sachs's $75 to $80, inflation back towards the 2.6% core figure and the Fed from rises to cuts, as it cut 6 times during the 1990 to 1991 Gulf crisis, while a collapse points to Goldman's $130 oil case and a December rise. It names the funds to study for each world (IWM, JETS, IYT, ITB, XHB and XLY on cheap oil; XLE on expensive oil), explains why gold is down about 27% in a war (Turkey, Russia, Jordan and Azerbaijan selling reserves to pay dollar oil bills and defend their currencies, forced selling with an expiry date), and reads last week's rotation out of the old tech winners (Intel's worst day since 1974, Alphabet's largest single-day loss) into the oil majors. It closes with a plan that works in both worlds, 4 things to watch each week and a 5-point checklist for your own holdings, plus a pointer to one free live training. It is an educational explanation of a mechanism, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.