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The companion research report to Felix Prehn’s video, prepared by Goat Academy Research. Enter your email address and the report opens immediately.

An 18-page research report on the loop nobody is talking about. America is paying more to borrow for 10 years than at any time since 2002, the Treasury has doubled its buyback programme to hold the price up, a congressman has asked on the record whether it worked, and senators have written to ask whether the government's own cash balance is next. The report walks through the machine: why the bond yield is the floor under your mortgage, your savings rate and your pension fund's maths, why Britain and Germany feel it next, and what it means that the buyer of last resort for American debt is now America. It marks 4 November, the Treasury refunding statement at which Citi expects sales of 20 and 30 year bonds to be cut in favour of short-term bills, and explains who ends up carrying that risk. It then reads out the one line Morgan Stanley sent its institutional clients, R versus G turning positive by 2030, and connects it to the AI build-out: data centres buying every memory chip, Goldman Sachs's inflation miss, the Fed naming AI investment in its minutes, and AI-related companies at 49% of the S&P 500. It closes with three boring things to do: find out how much of your money is riding on AI, check your companies for debt, and stop treating long bonds as the safe bit, because TLT has roughly halved since 2020. It is not a sell-everything message.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.