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The companion research report to Felix Prehn’s video, prepared by Goat Academy Research. Enter your email address and the report opens immediately.

A 15-page companion briefing to the video of the same title. About $3.46 trillion has come off the 18 biggest AI stocks in a month. The Nasdaq 100 is down 10% from its record, which is a correction, while the S&P 500 is only about 3.5% below its high, because the index that looks calm is sitting on top of the names falling fastest: CoreWeave down about 50% from its high, Nebius down more than 40%, Intel more than halved and the chip fund SMH down close to 20%. The report puts that damage in money for a $200,000 technology-heavy fund, explains the 3 things that lined up at once (prices far ahead of profits, an earnings season that turned on the biggest spenders, and a 10-year government borrowing rate and oil price that make a safe bond look better than an expensive tech stock), and then turns to today's vote. It sets out the seat counts going in, why the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, and why a blocked Washington suits Wall Street: the S&P 500 returned about 9.9% a year under divided government against 8% under one-party rule from 1951 to 2023. After every one of the 19 midterms since 1950 the index was higher a year later, on average 16.6% (BNY Investments), and the specific set-up America may get today, a Republican president facing a Democratic Congress, has turned up 7 times since 1954 with stocks up all 7 times a year on, about 15.5% on average. Then the honest part: 1974 was the one that fell 10.3% in the first month after an oil shock and stubborn inflation, and 2011 was the split Congress that turned a debt-ceiling vote into a 17% fall and a lost AAA rating, with the next funding deadline on 11 December. RBC's figures since 1932 show this combination has been the weakest 2-year stretch of any, so the pattern can be right and still hurt first. The report gives the strongest counter-argument a fair hearing (rates fall, the 10-year drifts towards 4%, oil sells off, the S&P towards 10,125 by the end of 2027) and closes with a 4-step plan that needs no guess about the result: check every holding you actually own, do not trade the election, use alerts rather than panic selling, and build a watchlist (QQQ, SMH, RSP) to study where the money moves next, plus a pointer to one free live training. It is an educational explanation of a mechanism, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.