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The companion research report to Felix Prehn’s video, prepared by Goat Academy Research. Enter your email address and the report opens immediately.

A 13-page companion briefing to the video of the same title. The headline index is at a record, but nearly 6 in 10 American stocks are already down more than 20% from their highs, 9 in 10 chip makers are down more than 20% and roughly 4 in 10 have lost half their value. The index is not 500 companies any more; a handful of giant technology names make up around 40% of it, against about 26% for the top ten at the dot-com peak, so a green headline sits on top of a red market and most of the pain has already been taken. The report explains why the midterms are the trigger: an election clears the question mark that keeps money on the sidelines, and the S&P 500 has averaged around 14% in the 6 months and around 16% in the 12 months after a midterm. It then lines up the three forces arriving at once, the AI spending wave being digested so the fear is in the price, the election uncertainty about to clear, and the money supply growing at its fastest pace in about 4 years with the central bank buying again, the setup Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson has called one of the best of his career. It shows what the skilled money does (follows the flow into businesses growing sales, profits and return on capital, and buys quality while the crowd is frightened, as in early 2009 and autumn 2022), why the market is not a thermometer for the economy (2020 and 2022 side by side), and closes with a two-part plan (idle cash is not safe, look at quality not the news), a five-question checklist and a pointer to one free live training. It is an educational explanation of a mechanism, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Goat Academy is an online financial education institution founded by economist and former investment banker Felix Prehn.