Humanoid robots may be the next major turning point in technology and investing. Financial firm Morgan Stanley has released research projecting a future with up to one billion humanoid robots worldwide and a market size of around $5 trillion. At the same time, political sources report that Donald Trump’s team is preparing a focused executive order on humanoid robotics.
Felix Prehn, founder of Goat Academy, views this as a powerful combination of technology and national policy. Together, they could speed up robot adoption by many years and reshape how investors think about tech, semiconductors, and automation.
What Are Humanoid Robots?
Humanoid robots are machines that look and move somewhat like humans. They have:
- A “brain” (computer chips and AI processors)
- “Eyes” (cameras and sensors)
- “Muscles” (motors and parts called actuators that make them move)
Today, these robots are still early in their development. According to Morgan Stanley, there are only a few thousand humanoid robots in use. But the firm expects that number to rise to about 280,000 by 2030 and then grow toward one billion over the following years.
Why Humanoid Robots Could Be Cheaper Than Human Labor
Right now, building one humanoid robot costs roughly $60,000–$70,000. As factories scale up and production increases, that cost is expected to drop to around $40,000 by 2030.
This is important because the total wage cost of a full‑time worker in many developed countries can be higher than that number when salary, benefits, taxes, and insurance are included.
Analysts estimate that the operating cost of a humanoid robot could fall to about $2.60 per hour. By comparison, many minimum wage jobs in the United States pay $15–$20 per hour or more. Unlike people, robots do not need vacations, sick days, health insurance, or pensions. They can work close to 24 hours a day with only short breaks for charging and maintenance.
In simple terms: once the upfront cost is paid, a robot can become cheaper than human labor in under a year for many roles. That cost advantage is one key driver behind the huge growth forecasts.
The Role of Trump’s Rumored Executive Order
The reported executive order on humanoid robotics is not just a technology story. It is part of a wider national industrial strategy. This strategy appears to link several areas:
- Semiconductors (computer chips) – The basic components used in all modern electronics.
- Rare earths – Special metals needed for many high‑tech products, including chips and motors.
- AI infrastructure – Data centers, power grids, and AI chips needed to run advanced software.
- Robotics – The machines that use these chips and systems in the real world.
The idea is to secure these supply chains inside the United States. That means more chip factories on U.S. soil, more rare earth production, and more robotics manufacturing done domestically rather than overseas.
An executive order could:
- Offer tax breaks and grants to companies that build robots and key parts in the U.S.
- Require U.S.-made robots and components for government and military contracts.
- Increase government funding for robotics research and development.
- Speed up regulations and safety standards so robots can be deployed faster in industry, logistics, and defense.
These steps would send a strong signal to investors that the U.S. government sees humanoid robots as a core national priority, not just a niche tech trend.
Where the Money Flows in the Humanoid Robot Ecosystem
Felix Prehn focuses on the full ecosystem around humanoid robots instead of only a few headlines. He breaks it into several layers.
- The Brain: AI and Processor Chips
- Every robot needs AI chips to “think” and make decisions in real time.
- Companies that design and manufacture these chips could benefit as robot numbers grow.
- This includes chip designers, chip manufacturers, and firms that provide advanced AI hardware.
- Vision: Cameras and Image Sensors
- Robots need to see their environment clearly, often in low light, while moving.
- Leading image sensor makers already supply smartphones and cars and are likely to supply robots as well.
- Each robot may need five to ten cameras, creating a large new market for vision components.
- Sensing and Movement: Motors and Control Chips
- Robots rely on many sensors to measure touch, position, force, and temperature.
- They also need motor drivers and power management chips to move smoothly and safely.
- Many of these parts are similar to those used in cars, industrial machines, and home appliances, but at higher complexity.
- Integrators: Companies That Build Complete Robots
- An “integrator” is a firm that brings all these parts together into a working robot.
- Some well‑known electric vehicle makers are now building humanoid robots, using their experience with batteries, motors, and mass production.
- These companies may be among the first to produce robots at large scale for factories, warehouses, and later homes.
- Robotics ETFs (Exchange‑Traded Funds)
- An ETF is a basket of many stocks that investors can buy as one security.
- Robotics ETFs offer broad exposure to the sector without picking individual winners.
- This lowers company‑specific risk but also often limits extreme upside.
The Investment Lesson: Upside and Risk Both Matter
History shows that major technology waves can create huge fortunes—but only for those who also know when and how to exit risky positions.
- In the dot‑com boom of the 1990s, early internet stocks soared and then crashed.
- Smartphones created massive returns for some companies, but many early players disappeared.
- Rare earths, semiconductors, and other “hot” sectors have all gone through similar booms and busts.
Many early companies in new technologies fail. Some research suggests that around 90% of early‑stage firms in a new tech theme may eventually go out of business. For that reason, simply “buying and holding” individual stocks in a hot theme can be dangerous.
Felix Prehn stresses the importance of clear selling rules and risk management. In his view, skilled investors:
- Position early in strong themes with real demand and policy support.
- Use a clear system to lock in gains instead of hoping “it will come back.”
- Avoid over‑diversifying into dozens of names that dilute returns.
- Watch where large institutional money is flowing rather than reacting to late media coverage.
Humanoid robots, in his analysis, are one of the strongest themes of the coming decade. But he also underlines that there is always risk—technology delays, regulations, foreign competition, and high starting valuations for leading stocks can all create setbacks. No outcome is guaranteed, and investors can lose money.
Why Felix Prehn and Goat Academy Focus on This Trend
Felix Prehn is a former investment banker who has spent years studying how Wall Street operates. Through Goat Academy, he and his team teach everyday investors how to think more like professionals, especially around risk, position sizing, and selling rules. Goat Academy has already helped tens of thousands of students better understand how markets move during major technological shifts.
To learn more about the educator behind these ideas and his mission, see Felix Prehn and Goat Academy’s background here: Felix Prehn Goat Academy
Humanoid robotics combines several themes that Goat Academy follows closely: artificial intelligence, semiconductors, rare earths, and national industrial policy. The possible Trump executive order on robots may accelerate this trend and make it one of the defining opportunities—and challenges—of the 2020s and 2030s.
For now, the key takeaway is simple: humanoid robots are moving from science fiction to large‑scale deployment. Investors who understand both the potential and the risks stand a better chance of navigating the path ahead.