Many investors want one simple answer: the exact date of the next stock market crash. Felix Prehn explains that markets do not crash on a calendar alert. But they often follow patterns. Those patterns can help people understand when risk is rising and when caution makes more sense.
A key signal is when the Federal Reserve starts adding new money into the financial system. This is often described as “printing money.” In simple terms, it means the Fed creates new dollars and uses them to buy short-term government bonds from banks. This increases bank reserves, which are the cash-like funds banks keep to handle normal withdrawals and daily needs.
Why would the Fed do this? Prehn’s view is that it often happens when banks are under stress. Banks do not keep every deposited dollar in a vault. They usually lend most of it out. This system is called fractional reserve banking, which means a bank holds only a fraction of deposits as ready cash and loans the rest. If too many people try to withdraw at the same time, it can trigger a bank run (a rush of withdrawals that a bank cannot meet quickly).
When new money enters the system, asset prices can rise. Asset prices means the prices of things people invest in, like stocks and real estate. More money looking for returns can push prices higher. This can create a strong rally that feels exciting and “easy.”
Prehn also points to another sign that often appears near major peaks: a wave of huge IPOs. An IPO (initial public offering) is when a private company starts selling shares to the public for the first time. When markets are hot, founders and early investors often choose that moment to sell shares at high prices.
History offers two examples. Around 2000, many internet companies went public before a major drop in tech stocks. In 2021, many IPO buyers also lost money after the hype faded.
Based on these patterns, Prehn’s timeline highlights a risk window in late 2026. One reason is the common lockup period, which is usually about six months after an IPO. A lockup period is the time when early insiders cannot sell their shares. When that period ends, more selling can hit the market.
This does not guarantee a crash. But it explains why “exact dates” are less useful than watching signals. To learn more about Felix Prehn and Goat Academy, see: Felix Prehn Goat Academy.