Felix Prehn from Goat Academy shares a clear view of where markets might go next. He looks at policy shifts, money supply, and crowded trades. The focus is on what could move stocks, crypto, and a few key sectors.
A potential 15% revenue levy and why it matters
There are reports of a plan that would function like a 15% levy on chip sales revenue for access to China. A revenue levy is a charge on total sales (also called turnover), not on profit. This is different from income tax, which is paid after costs. A levy on revenue is hard to sidestep and can squeeze margins fast. If competitors do not face the same cost, chipmakers may have to absorb it. If they do, customers may pay more. Either way, lower margins hurt shareholders and can unsettle valuations in the near term.
M2 keeps rising: what more money does
Prehn notes that M2 money supply has trended up. M2 is a measure of money in the economy. It includes cash, checking deposits, and many savings accounts. When M2 rises, two things often happen. First, goods and services can get more expensive over time (inflation). Second, asset prices like stocks and real estate can rise. People on fixed salaries can fall behind if pay does not keep pace. Owners of assets can benefit as their holdings gain value.
Short interest, short squeezes, and why they spike
He also tracks stocks with high short interest. Short interest is the percentage of a company’s tradable shares that investors have borrowed and sold, hoping to buy back later at a lower price. A short squeeze can happen when good news pushes the price up, forcing short sellers to buy shares to close positions. That buying can drive prices even higher, fast. These moves can be large, but they are risky and unpredictable. Risk management matters more than the story.
Sector signals and earnings strength
Software remains a bright spot. Many firms reported results that beat expectations. This suggests AI is improving efficiency and lifting profit. It also shows that not all gains are hype-driven. Real savings and new revenue lines are showing up on income statements.
Crypto and liquidity links
Bitcoin and Ethereum have rallied alongside rising liquidity. Liquidity is the ease of finding buyers and sellers at stable prices. When money is abundant, risk assets can rise. If M2 keeps growing, crypto may keep tracking higher. But crypto is volatile, and fast gains can reverse quickly.
Robotaxi math and the cost curve
Autonomous ride services are getting cheaper per mile in early tests. If robotaxi costs stay well below rideshare prices, they can gain share. A sustained cost advantage can be a strong edge. The timing, scale, and regulation are still the main unknowns.
Volatility check
Market volatility, often tracked by the VIX, sits in a calm range. The VIX measures expected price swings for the S&P 500. Lower VIX levels usually mean steady markets. August and September often have lower trading volumes, so swings can still appear on headlines.
For background on Felix Prehn and his work at Goat Academy, see the overview at Felix Prehn Goat Academy.